There is a paradigm shift coming in the energy geopolitics of
the Western Hemisphere, and Canada, the self-proclaimed energy
superpower and the United States' largest energy provider, has decided
to sit on the sidelines. And it wasn't for lack of invitations: the
Americans tried, as early as last October, to convince Canada to join
them in seeking co-operation from Brazil on a new biofuels initiative,
only to be given the cold shoulder.
At that stage, Canadian mandarins didn't even suggest a
parallel initiative for the development of clean coal and
carbon-sequestration technologies, both part of a 21st-century energy
agenda.
Instead,
the Harper government is entirely focused on a domestic agenda,
crisscrossing the country with announcements of new funding for “green”
initiatives without ever stopping to think about how they could fit
into a broader global picture. Meanwhile, on the international front,
the same government is busy issuing interdictions against US LNG
projects that are merely in the proposal stages. True,
much of the US
effort is focused on ethanol, which is not likely to be a viable
alternative fuel for Canada,
at least not with the current technology. However, Ontario-based Iogen
and SunOpta are the world leaders in the next generation of ethanol
production, cellulosic ethanol - which produces fuel from any kind of
cellulose material, from sugar cane bagasse to wood chips to corn
stover– and that is worth a lot. Sadly, Canadian officials don’t seem
to have the imagination to see where they fit in the larger regional
picture, and now, their counterparts in the US
don’t care anymore. This must be the first case of a superpower without
any sense of its own power.
While Canada sleeps, others have had no trouble seizing the
moment. Last week U.S. President George W. Bush met with Brazilian
President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and officially launched discussions
for a Brazil- U.S. co-operation agreement on the development of
biofuels, ethanol in particular, as an alternative energy source for
the Americas. The Brazilian president is following up with a courtesy
call to Mr. Bush on March 31. This unprecedented move of two leaders
seeing each other twice in the same month is an indication that the
White House is very serious about this opportunity.
Driving this agenda is the United States' heightened concern
with energy security. Until recently, most of the focus has been on the
Middle East. However, as of late, the U.S. administration has turned
its attention to the instability Venezuela's Hugo Chavez is bringing to
the region. Mr. Chavez is using his petro-dollars to influence
governments to adopt his vision of development, which translates to
government control in all areas and a vitriolic dislike for all ideas
espoused by open-market economies. Oil importers in the Caribbean and
Central America have suffered the most, as they have no alternatives to
mitigate the detrimental economic impacts of high oil prices, and are
reluctantly acceding to Mr. Chavez's demands.
But high oil prices are exactly what led Brazil, a country
without easily accessible oil reserves, but with plenty of land to
plant sugar cane, to develop ethanol as an alternative fuel. It took 30
years of trial and error, but today Brazil is self-sufficient in oil
production, chiefly because ethanol accounts for 40% of the domestic
transportation market. A wide transportation and distribution system
delivers the product to consumers, who, thanks to flex-fuel vehicles,
can choose what fuel to use at the pump.
If this experience can be duplicated in other potential
sugarcane- growing regions -- from Haiti, to Dominican Republic, to
Cuba, to Mexico -- one could envision countries escaping hydrocarbon
domination and having a much greater degree of control over their
economy and, consequently, their development agenda. That in itself
would be reason enough for Canada to support the implementation of
ethanol production in the region. It would help stabilize the region by
reshaping the energy mix. However, the Brazil-U.S. cooperation
agreement has the potential to go much further.
Currently, the United States is experiencing an explosion in
ethanol production, in spite of the fact that its corn-based ethanol is
neither as economical nor as environmentally friendly as Brazil's
sugar-cane product. The surge in production is a result of generous
subsidies, mandated use, and import barriers. The effects these
measures have had on domestic and international agriculture and food
markets have been so intense that billions will be spent by both the
public and private sectors to make cellulosic ethanol production viable
as soon as possible.
That is at the core of the Brazil-U.S. co-operation agreement.
Brazilians want to make sure some of these funds are applied to
developing cellulosic ethanol using their existing sugar-cane-ethanol
production facilities as a base. Early indications are that Indiana
Senator Richard Lugar will introduce legislation to facilitate
multi-investor, multi-national technology development, application, and
commercialization.
Joining Mr. Lugar's initiative is the best chance for Canada
to get back in the picture. Aside from the great opportunity it offers
for Canadian companies, it would ensure that Canada keeps its lead as a
technology developer in face of what will be tremendous competition
from the United States.
It would also give notice that we can see beyond our borders,
that we are a player in the hemispheric energy game for the long term.
But if all Canadians care about is their own narrow domestic agenda,
can we please drop the pretense of being a superpower?
- - -
- Annette Hester is an energy market economist based in
Calgary and a senior associate with the Centre for International
Governance Innovation in Waterloo, Ont.